Possible Self Driving/ Autonomous Trucks Opinions And Time Frame?

Most of the companies involved with self driving have billions behind them with no need for investors.

......said the guy who apparently never heard of the Stock Market where all of the largest companies in the world have billions of dollars worth of their investor's money being traded daily.

However investors are sinking multi billions into self driving

So they don't need investors, but billions are being invested?

That's a pretty confusing way to start a Monday morning. Anyhow......

Its coming faster than you think

No, it isn't.

This guy is 21, he has, maybe 10 yrs before he starts getting squeezed out.

No, he doesn't.

Airplanes and trains are much easier to operate autonomously than trucks will be and in fact have had that capability for decades, and yet it hasn't happened.

In fact, if you read some of the stuff being written more recently on the subject you'll find that almost no one is trying to claim that trucks will be operated without a driver on board anymore. They're saying they'll add safety features and autonomous-type features but all of it will have to be overseen by an actual driver in the truck. Not to mention, there are thousands of scenarios that algorithms simply aren't going to be able to deal with even decades from now.

In fact, when I started driving in '93 they had this really lousy system that was supposed to detect objects in your path and alert you that there is a problem by beeping at you. Yeah, it alerted you alright. That thing beeped most of the time when you went under a bridge or near a guardrail or there was a car parked on the shoulder. It beeped at everything. To this day they still use a similar system except it's far more dangerous now because it hits your brakes for you automatically without warning. That's super safe in heavy traffic on slick roads, isn't it?

There is no chance trucks are going to be operated without drivers. The safety advancements they've made in the past 25 years are quite unimpressive and leave us no reason to believe we're even close to this being feasible.

Heck, a Tesla driver was killed about two years ago when the car didn't recognize that an 18 wheeler was completely across the road in front of the car.

You don't judge a technology by its successes. You judge a technology based on its failures. It's not about the potential this technology has. It's about how perfect it can be. As you can see by that Tesla example we're not even in the ballpark.

By the way, you sound pretty confident about what you're saying. Are you involved in the autonomous driving industry somehow?

Mack T. Contradicts:

Most of the companies involved with self driving have billions behind them with no need for investors. However investors are sinking multi billions into self driving. Its coming faster than you think.

So they don't but they do? Any company whether private or public has investors trying to cash in on this. The thing you fail to realize, these systems don't necessarily replace the driver, but will only change the job function.

Are you familiar with ATC (automatic train control) in the railroad industry? The base technology and concept has existed since the 50's. That said industry wide adoption required over 50 years. They use tracks, far greater control of the operational environment than the Current System of roads and highways in trucking.

None of us including you can predict how our jobs will change, when, or the extent or speed of overall adoption of this technology. The diversity and complexity of all moving parts, the least of which federal and state regulators, is staggering (an understatement)

"Faster than we think" is a subjective evaluation, perhaps a self-fulfilling prophecy only considering base technology accuracy, effectiveness and fail-over proven in a series of limited controlled test cases. Most of this testing is designed to line-up investors willing to take it beyond development and base test phases.

Comprehensive testing must be completed at the manufacturer/developer source first and then the government will conduct their own typically protracted and politically influenced testing. At that point standards of tolerance, operational limits, point of failure limits, and minimum inspection/maintenance intervals will need to be set with no current precedent of reference. The trucking companies will then beta-test representative technologies and determine best fit. Implementation and production roll-out of this is so far in the future I doubt any trucking company has spent dime one on how and where to inject this into their operation. Do you have any clue how long that will take? I'll answer for you Mack...no. Pioneering technologies carry risk,...shouldn't not underestimate this basic fact requiring double-digit levels of redundancy and system backup.

From the practical perspective a disruptive technology capable of totally changing industry dynamics; once proven safe, efficient and cost effective will NOT experience a fast track to prolific adoption politically or commercially. Somewhere in the middle of two extremes is where the future level of practical adoption will occur. None of us understands nor can predict where that level will fall and can only guess at this point in time.

You are greatly underestimating the level of complexity required to implement this and over stating the fear that should be associated with it. Over time it might supplement the driver function as we know it but likely never fully replacing it. And that is only a best guess...

Most of the companies involved with self driving have billions behind them with no need for investors.

......said the guy who apparently never heard of the Stock Market where all of the largest companies in the world have billions of dollars worth of their investor's money being traded daily.

However investors are sinking multi billions into self driving

So they don't need investors, but billions are being invested?

That's a pretty confusing way to start a Monday morning. Anyhow......

Its coming faster than you think

No, it isn't.

This guy is 21, he has, maybe 10 yrs before he starts getting squeezed out.

No, he doesn't.

Airplanes and trains are much easier to operate autonomously than trucks will be and in fact have had that capability for decades, and yet it hasn't happened.

In fact, if you read some of the stuff being written more recently on the subject you'll find that almost no one is trying to claim that trucks will be operated without a driver on board anymore. They're saying they'll add safety features and autonomous-type features but all of it will have to be overseen by an actual driver in the truck. Not to mention, there are thousands of scenarios that algorithms simply aren't going to be able to deal with even decades from now.

In fact, when I started driving in '93 they had this really lousy system that was supposed to detect objects in your path and alert you that there is a problem by beeping at you. Yeah, it alerted you alright. That thing beeped most of the time when you went under a bridge or near a guardrail or there was a car parked on the shoulder. It beeped at everything. To this day they still use a similar system except it's far more dangerous now because it hits your brakes for you automatically without warning. That's super safe in heavy traffic on slick roads, isn't it?

There is no chance trucks are going to be operated without drivers. The safety advancements they've made in the past 25 years are quite unimpressive and leave us no reason to believe we're even close to this being feasible.

Heck, a Tesla driver was killed about two years ago when the car didn't recognize that an 18 wheeler was completely across the road in front of the car.

You don't judge a technology by its successes. You judge a technology based on its failures. It's not about the potential this technology has. It's about how perfect it can be. As you can see by that Tesla example we're not even in the ballpark.

By the way, you sound pretty confident about what you're saying. Are you involved in the autonomous driving industry somehow?

As far as investors I mean they already have the money or have already invested billions in AI and self driving. I know you guys have a huge interest in manual driving but I will say this, the 21 yr old will NOT retire at 65 as a truck driver.

I will say this, the 21 yr old will NOT retire at 65 as a truck driver

Wouldn't you have said that in the 70's about airline pilots and train engineers? You certainly would have.

Besides, that's almost a half a century from now. I wouldn't call that a bold prediction.

but I will say this, the 21 yr old will NOT retire at 65 as a truck driver.

Give us something beside your own personal opinion. We are the kind of folks who like facts. We are happy to have a discussion with you. We're not just a bunch of redneck truck drivers. Many of us have several degrees. How about you start by telling us a little about yourself. You popped in here out of the blue like an expert, but thus far you're not very convincing.

We don't have our heads in the sand, and we're pretty big on technology. So, we understand the hype, but we don't see anything that removes us from the equation. If anything it will make our jobs more technical, with higher levels of training required. We don't have a problem there, but to equate autonomous and driverless is a huge stretch given the liabilities involved.

Since we're throwing out big huge predictions for a half century away, here's one from me. Autonomous trucks will need two drivers on board by the time the technology is fully implemented.

The reasoning is that the H.O.S. rules won't be needed for the machine anymore. It will run constantly without need for rest. Thus there will always be a need for a fresh driver/overseer at all times. The humans involved will still require rest, and the way that will be accommodated is to have two of them on board at all times.

Since we're throwing out big huge predictions for a half century away, here's one from me. Autonomous trucks will need two drivers on board by the time the technology is fully implemented.

The reasoning is that the H.O.S. rules won't be needed for the machine anymore. It will run constantly without need for rest. Thus there will always be a need for a fresh driver/overseer at all times. The humans involved will still require rest, and the way that will be accommodated is to have two of them on board at all times.

LMAO

LMAO

Have you flown in a plane lately? They are much easier to automate than a truck. Two pilots on board.

And they will still need to go to schools that teach how to drive a class 8 truck, then they will need to be trained OTR OJT by a driver trainer. That will all be performed by humans, not machines.

Mack T:

As far as investors I mean they already have the money or have already invested billions in AI and self driving. I know you guys have a huge interest in manual driving but I will say this, the 21 yr old will NOT retire at 65 as a truck driver

Is that how it works...?

New technology requires many rounds of investment required to move it from concept, to development, to test, to government test, to Beta test eventually to production and adoption. It's only in development and not beyond simple initial testing. Step one of ten...its in its infancy.

Re-read my reply to you Mack. All of it... cause obviously you comprehended none of it.

A 21 year old can definitely enter this industry now and if they stick with it, adjust to and accept technology changes it is quite possible they can retire as a "driver". The only thing we do not know and have no way of predicting is how it will change.

Take my advice...don't show up to a gun fight with a rubber band and a paper clip...