Profile For Brett Aquila

I'm a highly-motivated person. I love to challenge myself. I love to push myself. I love to explore areas of life that are new to me.

As a driver, I loved almost everything about the job and lifestyle of an OTR driver. I wanted to see how hard I could push myself. I wanted to challenge authority to see if they could stop me from accumulating more miles than I legally should. I wanted to learn how my company worked so I could leverage the system to my advantage. I wanted to see the country and experience all of the exciting things that different places had to offer. There was rarely a dull moment, with a new adventure or challenge or event around every corner.

Most of us lose that drive after a while. Sometimes we just get burned out on one particular path in life. Sometimes we attribute it to getting old and soft. Sometimes we don't really know what it is, but that "it" just isn't there like it was.

I've found that at 52 years old I still have every bit of the fire inside me as I've ever had for life. I love to challenge myself. I love adventures. I'm always looking for the 'next great thing' and I even have a tough time choosing what to do and staying focused because there are so many exciting options.

One thing I have discovered about myself is that once I lose that passion for a particular pursuit in life, it never returns. Once I've pursued something to a certain point, I feel like I've fulfilled that curiosity and challenged myself in that area, so it's time to move on. I can't think of anything I've ever done in my life where I pursued it to the fullest, lost the passion for it, and rekindled that passion to its previous level. Once it's gone, it's gone.

I'm curious about the drivers here in our community. Has your desire to challenge yourself as a driver remained as strong as it was when you first started?

What about your life outside of trucking - do you challenge yourself like you used to? Do you still have that curiousity about new paths in life and that drive to pursue your dreams?

How has your time on the road affected your inner drive and your perspective on this career, which is always so challenging and risky?

Welcome, David!

Should I give it a go or give up on the dream altogether?

In my way of thinking, this is the easiest question of the day because you answered it already:

Driving OTR was always a dream...I still have that dream

In my world, that's all the reason you need, and I would dare say it's a strong enough reason that you must.

I think taking a shot at trucking is a very low-risk adventure, other than the obvious risk of getting into an accident. But from a lifestyle and financial perspective, you can take a shot at trucking and walk away with little consequence if it isn't for you.

For you, it's even less of a risk because you already have your CDL. You may need some refresher training, but you can find that free from one of the major carriers.

Anyone know any drivers out there with physical limitations and dare I say, disabilities?

They have eased regulations in recent years regarding driving with physical problems, even disabilities. There are programs for people with vision problems, high blood pressure, type 1 diabetes, hearing problems, and even programs for amputees. So if you're afraid of any physical limitations you may face, the industry is moving in a friendly direction for you.

The guy I worked for that drove for many years OTR said he left trucking with a back injury. He thought I was crazy for trying to start with a back injury. But, if there's a will there's a way right?

I think this may be something you won't know until you try. I'm sure there are many things you can do to better your chances of success, like physical therapy, yoga, proper eating, maintaining proper weight, and more. But I don't think you'll know until you give it a shot and try everything you can think of to make it work.

"Where there's a will, there's a way" is more powerful than most people realize. You'll never know what you're capable of until you truly have no choice. But if this is a dream of yours and you want it badly enough, you'll make it happen. There's no way to know how long you'll want to remain out there, but you'll have fulfilled that dream and given yourself more career opportunities and experience at the same time.

I never try to talk someone into trucking if I don't feel they're cut out for it or I don't think they'll give it a worthwhile effort. But it sounds like you'll give it one hell of a shot if given the opportunity, so I say go for it. Take a shot and see where it leads. The worst-case scenario is that you only last a short time and decide it isn't for you. Even if that happens, you'll have learned a ton, fulfilled your dream, and formed a clearer picture of what to do with your future. Not only that, but you'll always have some great stories to tell.

Lastly for now, how far out is the industry in terms of automated trucks? What is the job outlook for drivers?

Self-driving trucks are no concern. They've hyped that technology for a very long time, and it's nowhere near mass-scale adoption. I wrote an article about this seven years ago, in 2017, and it's still as relevant today:

Self Driving Trucks Are Not Coming Anytime Soon

However, the industry right now has too much capacity for the amount of freight available, and that won't balance out for at least another year, they say. Trucking companies are always hiring, but it's a little tougher now than it normally is during times of strong demand.

To be clear, what I'm questioning is the need to have recent OTR experience, even if you're an experienced OTR driver. So if you have three years of OTR experience, but none in the past year, some companies won't hire you. This is the situation I'm talking about. I'm not referring to people with no OTR experience.

I would imagine all of that is a big change for someone who never did it. Someone who has... idk. I think it would come back.

Of course it would come right back. That's why, "It's like riding a bike" is one of the most famous cliches of all. Once you know something well, you get it back quickly.

However the technology on these trucks keeps changing so quickly.

If truck technology changed quickly, that would only make things easier for the driver. As far as I know, no technological inventions have made it harder to drive a truck.

Back in '93, when I started, you had no cell phones, GPS, internet, automatic transmissions, adaptive cruise control, proximity sensors, on-demand weather radar, or satellite communication. Your "toolset," if you could call it that, was a notebook, a pen, and a long-distance calling card. The trucks were the same height, weight, and length as today.

So navigation and communication were infinitely more difficult and limited back then. Things are much easier today.

And honestly, I don't think the technology has changed much from a driver's perspective in recent years. Most of the technology gains that affected drivers happened in the late '90s and early 2000s.

The bigger changes have happened with regard to the office staff. You now have more advanced mathematical modeling, including the use of AI and machine learning, for things like freight pricing, fuel hedging, fleet sizing, financing, hiring, and load planning.

None of that has made it into the driver's cab.

My best guess is they require recent OTR experience because of the lifestyle more than anything. If you ran OTR and came off the road to run local, it's likely because you didn't want the OTR lifestyle any longer. If you're returning to OTR, it could be temporary, and there's a good chance it won't last.

• You may need to fill a temporary hole in your finances
• You're going through a major life-changing event like a divorce
• You're making ends meet while you wait for a better opportunity to come along
• You're unhappy with your current circumstances, so you're going back to OTR, hoping for a spark

I know this about myself: I'm incredibly driven when pursuing my latest obsession, but once I lose interest, it never returns to its previous level. I find something that fascinates me, I dive in head-first, and I live it to the fullest until I reach a point where I can say, "Ok, that was really cool. I'm glad I did that. But it's time for something new."

And just like that, I'm off on my next adventure, never to return.

I suspect it's that sort of thing that keeps people from succeeding when they return to an OTR job after coming off the road for a while. I left the OTR scene to go local a few times over the years, and returned to OTR because I found that I still preferred that level of adventure and lifestyle. Finally, I got my fill, and I never returned to OTR or driving professionally. I felt I had experienced all it had to offer, and so I moved on. If I returned to OTR trucking tomorrow, it would take me less than a week to be back in the groove, but I'd soon remember that's no longer where I want to be.

it’s all been NO because of no recent tractor trailer experience

Does anyone know why recent OTR experience is so important to many OTR companies? I've wondered this for 30 years and never heard a definitive answer.

My best guess is that they figure you came off the road because you didn't want to be OTR any longer, and you might be returning temporarily to 'fill a hole' in your finances or as a holdover while you look for another local job.

I'm sure the large carriers have statistics showing that someone without recent OTR experience is less likely to stick around and be successful, but I've never had the conversation with any higher-ups.

Anyone know? Any theories?

Empty back hauls are common in LTL and it's worked into the price of moving freight. My return trip consists of empty trailers 9/10 times.

One thing trucking companies are aware of is the expectation they set when they agree to haul freight at a certain price. If the current breakeven is $2.00/mile and you agree to haul at $1.80, it could become very difficult to raise your prices with that shipper or with others who know you hauled at $1.80.

Sometimes, trucking companies choose to run empty instead of hauling at a loss to avoid feeding into a downward spiral in future rates.

The Article doesn't address the rest of the cuts going on like engineers and project managers. They're getting mutual separation agreements or severance packages.

Much of that is related to AI or the slowdown in our economy.

We're living through an AI-induced slaughter of white-collar workers and other office personnel right now. Of course, the mainstream media won't talk about it, but the list of layoffs over the past few months is staggering. It's across every industry. It would be hard to find a job you do in front of a computer that AI can't enhance or eliminate.

I think our economy is still in the midst of a slowdown, which I expect to get worse. AI is going to make things much, much worse.

So, you will continue to see waves of layoffs in every industry across the board.

It's a good time to be a tradesman, that's for sure!

I think one of the easier predictions will be for a resurgence in trade school attendance.

I find it odd that they are forecasting gains too as we're in what many have described as Carpocalypse. Inventories are stockpiling, the dealerships can't sell them and are defaulting on their floor loans and allotments.

One of my newer predictions is that you will soon see the length of auto and car loans get extended. You'll start seeing 8 - 10-year auto financing and 35 - 40-year mortgages become increasingly common.

There's no other reasonably painless way to continue the US dollar Ponzi scheme because it all relies on debt. You can't raise interest rates higher for longer because the interest on the debt will be too high to service. You'll blow up the system.

You can't lower prices for long or the entire debt-based system will collapse. You'll get a wave of defaults which will cascade through the system from top to bottom.

So, if you can't really raise interest rates further for longer and you can't lower prices, you can only increase the length of financing terms to make payments affordable again. Of course, this will further drive up prices, but that's what we're faced with.

For years I predicted the resurgence of unions because they've squeezed our standard of living down to nothing and drove the wealth gap way too far. Now you're seeing it, as auto workers are unionizing in the South, and companies like Starbucks, Amazon, and Walmart face increasing pressure from unions.

Now I'm predicting 10-year car loans and 40-year mortgages will become commonplace over the next few years.

Buckle up! It's gonna be brutal.

I brought up how FedEx freight's shipments per day dropped from 120k to 90k. He told me he didn't expect it to get back to where it was. He said the focus on customers was qualtity over quantity. They raised shipping prices and were fine letting go of anybody that didn't want to pay the increase.

Every business owner in every industry weighs pricing decisions continually based on demand, profitability, and various other factors.

I've spoken with trucking executives who readily admit they haul freight at a loss sometimes. It can be maintaining fleet size, keeping top drivers rolling, moving drivers out of poor-paying areas into better areas, finding a backhaul for a dedicated account, and other factors.

This must be one of the most difficult times to make business projections there ever was:

1. The government blatantly lies about everything. You can't get any reliable data from them at all.

2. They shut down the planet and then printed trillions of dollars, thus executing the largest wealth transfer to the upper class in human history

3. They drove inflation through the roof, the worst in 50 years

4. The combination of interest rates and inflation made home ownership impossible for most people in the US

5. AI gets released in the middle of all this, creating a massive waves of layoffs throughout many industries, including tech and finance. You'll see millions more people lose their jobs over the next year or two because of AI alone.

6. On top of everything else, it's an election year, which means bad actors will once again bring chaos to our country like in 2020. Back then it was Antifa, now it's Palestine. When it comes time to implement CBDC's to take final control of the population, they'll create yet another "summer on fire" with a new excuse.

It's impossible to know where we're heading at this point.

New article came out today:

GM Shifts Into Higher Gear As It Beats Quarterly Results, Raises 2024 Guidance

Here is a quote from the article:

General Motors shares are higher in premarket trading after raising its 2024 guidance and beating Wall Street analysts' top- and bottom-line expectations for the first quarter. The automaker cited stable pricing and increasing demand for its petrol-powered vehicles.

GM boosted its adjusted pretax profit forecast to $12.5 billion to $14.5 billion, or $9 to $10 a share, up from its previous range of $12 billion to $14 billion, or $8.50 and $9.50 a share, for the year on a more robust car market in North America offsetting losses in other regions.

The automaker increased its 2024 forecast for adjusted automotive free cash flow to $8.5 billion and $10.5 billion, up from the previous estimate of $8 billion to $10 billion.

Last year the UAW renegotiated contracts and scored a big win for auto workers. I've been celebrating these wins here in this thread. After the UAW negotiations, people said, "Just watch and see how many of those workers lose their job."

Well, it looks like everything is full steam ahead at Chevrolet. The company is making a ton of money, and even raised guidance for 2024 beyond what they previously expected and above Wall Street expectations.

I'm pointing this out because my take has always been that workers aren't getting their fair share anymore. People repeatedly warn me that these raises are going to lead to job losses, moving factories overseas, and more pain for the little man.

This demonstrates that even after giving a massive raise to its workers, the auto makers are rolling along just fine and the workers are able to pay their bills a little easier at the same time.

Here are some details about the contract negotiations from last year for the UAW:

2023 Negotiations: After six weeks of strikes, the UAW reached agreements with each automaker in November 2023. These contracts were seen as a major win for the union and a turning point in labor relations.

Key Wins for Workers:

Wage Increases: Workers received a significant increase in hourly pay, with estimates suggesting a total increase of 25% over the four-and-a-half-year contract term. This is a substantial jump compared to the previous contracts.

Cost-of-Living Adjustments (COLA): The contracts included a reinstatement of COLA provisions, which had been suspended in previous agreements. This helps wages keep pace with inflation.

Improved Benefits: The contracts offered improved healthcare benefits and other benefits for workers.

Two-Tier System Elimination: While not eliminated entirely, the agreements aimed to phase out the two-tier wage system in some plants, leading to more equitable pay structures.

Job Security: The contracts provided some assurances for job security, including the reopening of a previously closed plant by Stellantis.

Overall Impact: These contracts were viewed as a significant victory for the UAW, reversing years of concessions and demonstrating renewed bargaining power for autoworkers. The substantial wage increases addressed concerns about rising living costs and income inequality.

Hey Davy,

Amen to all that! I agree with every word.

As a union steelworker, my father earned wages based on piecework. He loved that job.

What I have always loved about mileage pay or piecework is that the goals of the workers and the company are in alignment. It's easier to start with the hourly example first.

With hourly pay, workers feel motivated to do as little work as possible. It's to the worker's advantage to do little or nothing for their pay because they're not being paid for their work but for their time. So why do any work? Just put in the time if you can.

The company, on the other hand, wants the opposite. They would like to squeeze as much work as possible out of the worker each hour to get the best return on their investment.

So, with hourly pay, the workers and management have opposing incentives.

With mileage pay or piece work, the company and the workers make or lose money together. The more work the workers do, the more money they make, and the more money the company makes. So, everyone's interests are aligned, and they work together toward the same goal: maximum productivity.

We've often discussed the relationship between driving a truck and owning a business. In many respects, the job duties of a truck driver align closely with those of a business owner. A driver must account for a wide variety of variables at all times, including traffic, weather, logbook hours, parking, personal responsibilities outside of work, relationships, and more.

It's rare for an employee to have so much responsibility and so much control over their working domain. It's an opportunity to outperform your peers, but it can be overwhelming. Poor decisions will cost the driver and the company money.

We live in a competitive world, and trucking is one of the most competitive industries in America. It's an outstanding career for ambitious people. Motivating drivers to become more efficient with mileage pay has contributed to tremendous gains in efficiency, keeping freight rates low through the years and helping our economy stay strong.