Comments By Brett Aquila

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Posted:  2 months ago

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Self driving trucks

We are still a long way from this tech being threatening in any way.

That's for sure! I always bring up an article I wrote back in 2017:

Self Driving Trucks Are Not Coming Anytime Soon

It's been eight years since I wrote that article, and I wrote it at the time because people were talking as if we were just about there. I knew we weren't even close.

Three years after writing that article, I went to a business convention in Florida put on by a very famous person. This was in January 2020. The man stood in front of a huge audience and exclaimed, with fantastic confidence, "With self-driving trucks, there will be no truck drivers in five years!"

I know he didn't mean it literally when he said there would be no truck drivers, but it's been 5 1/2 years since he said that, and not one single driver was replaced by self-driving vehicles, and in fact, there are more truck drivers on the road today than there were five years ago.

However, another thing I've warned about for years was the possibility of bringing in immigrants to take our jobs, and that has happened in a big way over the past few years. Hopefully, that trend will reverse, but it never did for other industries like farming, construction, and landscaping. Only time will tell.

Self-driving trucks will not hurt truck driver pay or recruitment for many years, if ever at the pace they're going. However, not the same can not be said for immigrants. It has had an effect, and will for the foreseeable future.

Posted:  2 months ago

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I quit Prime. New adventure coming

I feel like i was forced to leave. I am trying very hard to not be bitter.

Wow, it's unexpected that you're leaving Prime, yet at the same time, it's not surprising.

The problem in trucking is that there are only so many advantages that a *very* experienced driver like yourself can bring to the table. At some point, the pay raises and perks they have to keep giving you aren't worth it anymore. That's why the largest carriers have a disproportionate number of inexperienced drivers relative to old-timers. Drivers with enough experience can get the job done just as well, but at a lower rate.

For example, a driver with 6 months of experience already knows enough to be mostly safe and moderately productive. A driver with 12+ months is pretty much there. At that point, it's more a matter of motivation than experience. Either you want to turn big miles or you don't. Once you have a year in the industry, getting more experience won't contribute much to your performance.

So, it's a job where a low-to-intermediate amount of experience is usually good enough to produce master results.

For contrast, sports are often a very different matter. Experience as a quarterback in the NFL is priceless because you will get noticeably better even after many years of NFL experience. Tom Brady, after 12 years in the NFL, was better than Tom Brady after 8 years. But for truck drivers, that isn't the case.

You already know five people working at the company you'll be working for, so hopefully, they have a different approach toward highly-experienced drivers due to a different business model or perspective. But obviously, Prime's entire system is geared toward taking entry-level drivers and making them proficient. They're looking for that sweet spot where drivers have enough experience to perform at a high level, but still not enough to demand the highest wages and perks.

You're just too damn good for em at this point, Kearsey! You've outgrown the nest.

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I look forward to hearing about your new adventure and what it's like working for a new company for the first time in your career.

Posted:  3 months ago

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I’m a newbie, looking for a career change.

It says here “we don’t recommend community colleges and local training” I don’t agree with that. A good driver can come from anywhere it all comes down to if the individual commits themselves to learning.

We don't recommend community colleges or private training, but we didn't say we forbid them or that you can't succeed that way. There is a preferred way of doing things, which for almost everyone is paid training, and there are less preferred ways, which still work most of the time.

Posted:  3 months ago

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I’m a newbie, looking for a career change.

A lot of good information in here, but some stuff that’s just plain wrong.

Oh, this should be good. Go for it, friend. School us veterans with your two years of deep knowledge. What did we get wrong?

Posted:  3 months, 1 week ago

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Biden Handed Out CDLs Like Candy... Now US Highways Are A Public & National Security Nightmare!

WOW, what a shocking revelation for the trucking industry. I'm floored by what the last administration did and the recruiting nightmare that's about to hit the trucking industry in the coming months. It could be a massive crisis.

Here is a summary of an article by Zerohedge titled, Biden Handed Out CDLs Like Candy... Now US Highways Are A Public & National Security Nightmare:

The U.S. trucking industry has faced a dramatic shift over the past decade, driven by policy changes that loosened driver standards and flooded the market with migrant truckers, culminating in rising safety risks and economic strain for American drivers.

  • In 2016, a federal memorandum waived enforcement of English proficiency requirements for CDLs, loosening standards for truck drivers.
  • In 2021, the Biden administration introduced the “Trucking Action Plan” to address a claimed driver shortage, initially targeting veterans, women, and minorities.
  • By 2022, the Biden administration boasted adding 876,000 new driversdoubling the usual annual rate—shifting the plan’s focus to issuing non-domicile CDLs to refugees and migrants.
  • Between 2022 and 2025, the industry gained over 300,000 drivers despite over 100,000 small and mid-sized U.S. carriers going bankrupt in an ongoing downturn.
  • Since 2016, truck-involved incidents and fatalities have steadily risen, a trend ATU correlates with the influx of minimally vetted migrant drivers.
  • Weeks ago, a migrant driver with limited English, holding a non-domicile CDL, caused a deadly crash in Austin, Texas, killing 5 and injuring 11, spotlighting safety risks.
  • ATU suspects NGOs like Texas-based Global Impact Initiative have aided migrants in obtaining CDLs, raising national security concerns (e.g., truck attacks like Nice, France).
  • In 2025, with Trump back in office and English now the official U.S. language, calls emerge for a task force to reverse Biden’s policies, reinstate language rules, and empower states to enforce penalties for non-compliant drivers.

Things are about to change dramatically in this industry. The demand for drivers over the past two years has gone nearly to zero, something I haven't experience in almost 20 years of running this website, including the Great Recession of 2008. Now I know why no one needs drivers. Man, that is about to change.

Posted:  4 months, 1 week ago

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Millis Transfer, passed my CDL test today!!!🥳👍

That's amazing Eric! Way to go!

Getting your CDL is something you'll never forget. I passed my exam in 1993 and I can remember it like it was yesterday!

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Posted:  4 months, 2 weeks ago

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Was wondering if and when I was going to see these.

Do you think this is the future or just going to be used by companies virtue signaling?

It won't happen soon, but someday they'll have a major breakthrough in battery technology, and this stuff will become economically feasible. Right now, running an all-electric vehicle infrastructure with today's battery technology is incredibly expensive. The mining, manufacturing, and charging infrastructure requirements are vast. We're nowhere near ready for this on a major scale. Battery technology needs to improve by 100x.

What I think we're living through now, with attempts at fully autonomous driving and electric vehicles, is real-world learning using someone else's money (taxpayers). Our technological skills are developing and we're solving real-world problems, but are we heading down the best path?

If the government would get out of the way, drones have a much more exciting future than driving vehicles. If the US had to make a commitment to either electric vehicles or drones, I'd much rather pursue drones. When you do a deep-dive comparison of drones to ground vehicles, drones have a million advantages. When you need the practicality of a ground vehicle, which you will, then you'll have it. Most of the time the drone will be the better choice.

If it evolved organically, I think you would see a gradual transition away from ground vehicles to drones over time. Every family would have a ground vehicle, and many would have at least one drone.

Posted:  5 months, 2 weeks ago

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Million Mile Award!

Last year I hit my one Million Safe Miles milestone.

WOW! That's amazing!

Oh.. and I have lost 80 pounds too!

WOW! I hate to use up my 'amazing' quota for the week on a Sunday morning, but you're killin' it! That's amazing!

I'll tell ya one of the things I love about you and the other long-time members here - you guys haven't been jaded by life on the road. You guys stay positive, work hard, take tremendous pride in what you do, and never stop improving. All of you promote this career in an honest and encouraging way, and you are the true champions in this industry.

Great job again, Kearsey! I've said that a lot over the years, and it won't be the last time.

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Posted:  5 months, 2 weeks ago

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Sean Duffy To Lead DOT Under Trump: Prospects For The Trucking Industry

I'm building a new AI-driven news system that isn't done, but it's working pretty well already so I'll use it here. I asked about recent news regarding Sean Duffy, who was picked to lead the DOT, and his potential affect on the trucking industry. Here is what it said (hint: the prospects are good!):

Sean Duffy's Nomination and Trucking Industry Prospects

Sean Duffy, President-elect Donald Trump's nominee for U.S. Secretary of Transportation, has generated considerable interest within the trucking industry. His background as a former Congressman, coupled with statements from various trucking associations, provides some insight into potential changes affecting the industry.

Positive Reactions from Trucking Associations

  • The American Trucking Associations (ATA) expressed strong support, highlighting Duffy's past support for pro-trucking policies aimed at improving supply chains and ensuring efficient goods movement. They specifically mentioned his understanding of the need for infrastructure improvements, such as reducing congestion, investing in truck parking, enhancing highway safety, and supporting innovative technologies.
  • The Owner-Operator Independent Drivers Association (OOIDA) also voiced its approval, emphasizing its hope for collaboration on key priorities like expanding truck parking, combating freight fraud, and reducing unnecessary regulations. They also noted Duffy's past support for an exemption from the Electronic Logging Device mandate for safe small business truckers.
  • The Truckload Carriers Association (TCA) congratulated Duffy and expressed eagerness to work with him on advancing policies ensuring highway safety and efficiency. They specifically mentioned their commitment to implementing safety technologies (like automatic emergency braking), improving drug testing methods, and enhancing driver training programs.

Duffy's Congressional Record

During his time in Congress, Duffy co-sponsored several trucking-related bills, though many stalled in committee. These included bills related to:

  • Allowing heavier trucks on interstate highways under specific conditions.
  • Expanding hours-of-service exemptions for agricultural drivers during planting and harvest.
  • Permitting hair testing for drug screening in the trucking industry.
  • Delaying the implementation of the electronic logging device mandate.

While these bills didn't become law, they reflect his engagement with trucking-related issues.

Potential Changes Under a Duffy-Led DOT

Based on the provided text, potential changes under Secretary Duffy's leadership could include:

  • Infrastructure improvements: Increased investment in roads, bridges, and truck parking facilities.
  • Safety enhancements: Implementation of new safety technologies and improvements to driver training programs.
  • Regulatory changes: Potential adjustments to hours-of-service regulations, and possible reconsideration of the electronic logging device mandate or speed limiters.
  • Focus on Innovation: Support for the development and implementation of new technologies in the trucking industry.

Note: The extent of these changes will depend on various factors, including Senate confirmation, budgetary considerations, and the overall policy direction of the Trump administration.

From Brett: Duffy was confirmed, so we'll see what he does!

Posted:  5 months, 3 weeks ago

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Gov’t task force report on lease purchase

Thanks for bringing that up, PJ!

Here at TT, we've always been firmly against leasing, as you know well, and this story confirms what we've always said: the contracts are designed by the company for the benefit of the company at the expense of the driver.

Trucking has such tight profit margins that you can't afford to have middlemen. In these leasing programs, there's no way to know who is involved. Did the company finance the truck and then provide the financing to you? Where did that money come from? Who is sponsoring all of it, and what do they get out of it?

Who knows? Could be several layers of financing involved coming from different sources.

Then, it should make people wonder why a trucking company would want to buy a truck and lease it to you instead of just hiring you as a driver. When do you see corporations help individual employees become business owners? Not too often!

A few simple questions about the process should throw a ton of red flags:

  • Who pays for fuel?
  • Who pays for repairs?
  • Do I still get health benefits?
  • Are there any mileage guarantees? What if I'm not getting enough miles to make my payments?

Just those few questions alone should make anyone take a step back and wonder what they're getting into.

Stay away from leasing trucks. The economics are terrible.

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