Profile For Brett Aquila

Wow, PJ. So you encountered drivers that could speak little or no English at EVERY Weigh Station???

So it certainly doesn't sound like an exaggeration that a significant percentage of CDL holders out there are immigrants now.

I've said for years that self-driving trucks are not the concern, but I worried about bringing in immigrants for cheap labor, just like they've done in many other industries. Well, it's here now, but will it last? Time will tell.

I can tell you this - almost no one has been looking for new drivers for the past two years or so. This past month, people started calling me again. If Trump's team stays in charge and can focus on this issue, I think they'll clean it up pretty well. It's not rocket surgery. But if they don't get it cleaned up, wages will drop hard.

I have noticed our office people are being asked to do more with less personnel.

That's funny, because one of the majors recently told me, "I was told to try getting more without giving more."

I said, "Well, you wouldn't have a very business-savvy boss if he didn't expect that sometimes."

I think almost everyone is trying to stay conservative in this volatile environment, but I believe enforcement is having a positive impact on driver demand (and hopefully salaries) and will continue to do so for the coming months and years. As is often the case, fixing the mess will take longer than creating it.

It's incredible that they gave almost one million non-domiciled CDLs to immigrants in an industry with three million drivers.

What have you guys been seeing regarding roadside checks in recent months? It's summer, so enforcement always goes up with better weather, but do you think this administration is pushing enforcement harder than the last administration?

The great news is at the end!

Zerohedge posted an article:

Letter Urges Transportation Sec. Duffy To Ban Foreign CDLs Amid Series Of Highway Crashes Tyler Durden's Photo

...a powerful movement is gaining momentum in Washington to address a national security crisis in America's trucking industry...American Truckers United has sent an urgent letter to Transportation Secretary Sean P. Duffy, demanding a ban on non-domicile Commercial Driver's Licenses (CDLs) for non-citizens and restrictions on foreign CDLs to commercial trade zones.

The letter exposes how illegal labor, exploiting loopholes from Biden-era policies, has flooded the industry with unvetted drivers. A recent Zero Hedge report highlighted how CDLs were handed out "like candy," creating a "public safety nightmare."

Another quote from the article:

The majority of the truckloads in Americas two largest ports are now being hauled by Non-Citizen truck drivers when shipped over the road by semi-truck

There has been a multi-pronged strategy to flood our country with untrained, unskilled, and inexperienced truck drivers.

Over the past few years, the government flooded our highways with immigrants, granting almost one million non-domiciled CDLs. Mexico has been handing out CDLs illegally as well, and sending drivers over here to haul freight. Several states have had major corruption scandels regarding bribery for handing out CDLs.

The Great News

Enforcement on the highways has increased in recent months after President Trump issued an executive order titled "Enforcing Commonsense Rules of the Road for America's Truck Drivers."

It seems to be working. Two of the majors have contacted me in the past two weeks, saying they need more applications. Not only has AI killed traffic to websites where they used to get many of their applications, but the flood of CDL holders that invaded our highways in recent years is in retreat.

Demand for drivers is picking up again and will continue to do so in the coming months.

I believe our economy is on solid ground and will gain momentum over the coming months and years. I think Trump is making the right moves, not only with tariffs but also with his executive order aimed at cleaning up the trucking industry.

This bodes well for driver demand, which will drive wages higher.

Have you guys been getting the miles?

Earlier in the conversation I said this:

I use AI daily. I build AI-driven apps. I can tell you from quite a bit of experience that AI will give you graduate-level science in one paragraph, but then screw up 3rd-grade level facts in the next. It is WILDLY unpredictable, even in many of the simplest tasks. You must not take your eyes off it, even for a moment.

Just now, I was trying to determine how many days it is from sept 11, 2001 to may 15, 2025.

Grok (x.com) said it's 5,013 days. The correct answer is 8,647 days.

I asked Grok how he derived it and he gave me a long explanation of the math, which was obviously wrong. I told him the answer was wrong and asked him why that happened. He said he miscalculated and the correct answer is 5,002 days. He gave an explanation longer than a typical blog article as to why the new number is correct.

To be fair, Gemini (Google) and ChatGPT (OpenAI) both got it correct.

But Elon Musk (owner of Grok) touts his robots, self-driving taxis, and Grok as world-changing technologies ready for prime time. None of them are anywhere near the claims he makes.

I love Elon and I think he's critically important to our future, but like all fabulously wealthy business owners, he's a marketing dynamo who will say anything to build a following and promote his products. Take nothing he says at face value if he stands to profit from it somehow.

Do not trust AI. Use it, but never blindly trust it. Also, be aware of who creates the one you're using because every AI has its own built-in prejudices. I trust Elon more than I do Google or OpenAI, but right now his AI is trailing the others.

TRUMP, once again, kickin' azzes, 'n takin' names

He sure is! This term is off to a glorious start.

Dont get me wrong but was Biden president in 2016?

Don't get me wrong, but your TDS is interfering with your reading comprehension. Read better.

I'm not really going to worry about self-driving trucks until the lane departure and collision alerts on my truck can tell what is and what isn't a concern.

It's almost impossible to believe that here we are in 2025, and trucks still have the same unreliable, primitive object detection systems that regularly give false alarms. You guys know I started driving in '93, and from the start, that garbage beeped in my ears all day long.

Guardrails, bridges, and everything else set that thing off. I can't remember a single time in my career when a safety device alerted me to something I was unaware of.

Clearly, tech companies' marketing and money-raising departments rely on people not noticing that nothing has changed in 30 years, even though, according to them, we're always "on the cusp of the final breakthrough. "

Funny you mentioned this, I literally saw one today mowing the large empty field at the mall. It got my attention because it has a bunch of flashing lights on it, and I was like "oh there is nobody riding that one".

They can use GPS to guide farm tractors and mowers in fields, but object detection and terrain detection are a problem. If you're in a big, open field like a cornfield or a football field, it's no problem. But if they put that tractor in a suburban yard, you'll have a lot of repair work to do. It can't do that kind of thing.

Same with these "self-driving trucks" that can only go from one Interstate exit to another. It's funny how they never mention self-driving trucks navigating major cities. It seems to me we could have developed a strong freight train network if we wanted to move a ton of goods in a straight line long distances without using many people. Developing self-driving trucks seems like an awful long and expensive way to accomplish that.

I have a couple of drones. They have object detection. It works great, until it flies straight into a tree for no apparent reason (ask me how I know)

but the harsh reality is that, even McDonalds still needs humans behind the counter in addition to the self service ordering terminals. I feel like if burger flippers haven't been replaced yet, we still have a long way.

I agree wholeheartedly.

For instance, they want self-driving vehicles, right? How about self-driving lawnmowers or garbage cans first? Prove you can build garbage cans that can drive themselves to the curb and return when empty. Then, prove you can consistently mow any lawn safely and efficiently, while the kids and pets are running around, and then we'll begin the conversation about cars and trucks.

I use AI daily. I build AI-driven apps. I can tell you from quite a bit of experience that AI will give you graduate-level science in one paragraph, but then screw up 3rd-grade level facts in the next. It is WILDLY unpredictable, even in many of the simplest tasks. You must not take your eyes off it, even for a moment.

I can't tell you how often I'm yelling at the screen, "How on EARTH could you screw that up? How could you possibly get that wrong????"

For instance, a few months ago I presented a partial list of U.S. state abbreviations and asked Grok (x.com), Gemini (Google), and ChatGPT (OpenAI) to complete the list. I gave each of them three tries, and none got it right. They would leave out states every time.

Yet ask them to explain quantum computing and they'll give you a 30-minute PhD dissertation.

Wildly unpredictable. That's not so good for decision-making when piloting an 80,000-pound truck.

We are still a long way from this tech being threatening in any way.

That's for sure! I always bring up an article I wrote back in 2017:

Self Driving Trucks Are Not Coming Anytime Soon

It's been eight years since I wrote that article, and I wrote it at the time because people were talking as if we were just about there. I knew we weren't even close.

Three years after writing that article, I went to a business convention in Florida put on by a very famous person. This was in January 2020. The man stood in front of a huge audience and exclaimed, with fantastic confidence, "With self-driving trucks, there will be no truck drivers in five years!"

I know he didn't mean it literally when he said there would be no truck drivers, but it's been 5 1/2 years since he said that, and not one single driver was replaced by self-driving vehicles, and in fact, there are more truck drivers on the road today than there were five years ago.

However, another thing I've warned about for years was the possibility of bringing in immigrants to take our jobs, and that has happened in a big way over the past few years. Hopefully, that trend will reverse, but it never did for other industries like farming, construction, and landscaping. Only time will tell.

Self-driving trucks will not hurt truck driver pay or recruitment for many years, if ever at the pace they're going. However, not the same can not be said for immigrants. It has had an effect, and will for the foreseeable future.

I feel like i was forced to leave. I am trying very hard to not be bitter.

Wow, it's unexpected that you're leaving Prime, yet at the same time, it's not surprising.

The problem in trucking is that there are only so many advantages that a *very* experienced driver like yourself can bring to the table. At some point, the pay raises and perks they have to keep giving you aren't worth it anymore. That's why the largest carriers have a disproportionate number of inexperienced drivers relative to old-timers. Drivers with enough experience can get the job done just as well, but at a lower rate.

For example, a driver with 6 months of experience already knows enough to be mostly safe and moderately productive. A driver with 12+ months is pretty much there. At that point, it's more a matter of motivation than experience. Either you want to turn big miles or you don't. Once you have a year in the industry, getting more experience won't contribute much to your performance.

So, it's a job where a low-to-intermediate amount of experience is usually good enough to produce master results.

For contrast, sports are often a very different matter. Experience as a quarterback in the NFL is priceless because you will get noticeably better even after many years of NFL experience. Tom Brady, after 12 years in the NFL, was better than Tom Brady after 8 years. But for truck drivers, that isn't the case.

You already know five people working at the company you'll be working for, so hopefully, they have a different approach toward highly-experienced drivers due to a different business model or perspective. But obviously, Prime's entire system is geared toward taking entry-level drivers and making them proficient. They're looking for that sweet spot where drivers have enough experience to perform at a high level, but still not enough to demand the highest wages and perks.

You're just too damn good for em at this point, Kearsey! You've outgrown the nest.

I look forward to hearing about your new adventure and what it's like working for a new company for the first time in your career.