Profile For Brett Aquila

The Article doesn't address the rest of the cuts going on like engineers and project managers. They're getting mutual separation agreements or severance packages.

Much of that is related to AI or the slowdown in our economy.

We're living through an AI-induced slaughter of white-collar workers and other office personnel right now. Of course, the mainstream media won't talk about it, but the list of layoffs over the past few months is staggering. It's across every industry. It would be hard to find a job you do in front of a computer that AI can't enhance or eliminate.

I think our economy is still in the midst of a slowdown, which I expect to get worse. AI is going to make things much, much worse.

So, you will continue to see waves of layoffs in every industry across the board.

It's a good time to be a tradesman, that's for sure!

I think one of the easier predictions will be for a resurgence in trade school attendance.

I find it odd that they are forecasting gains too as we're in what many have described as Carpocalypse. Inventories are stockpiling, the dealerships can't sell them and are defaulting on their floor loans and allotments.

One of my newer predictions is that you will soon see the length of auto and car loans get extended. You'll start seeing 8 - 10-year auto financing and 35 - 40-year mortgages become increasingly common.

There's no other reasonably painless way to continue the US dollar Ponzi scheme because it all relies on debt. You can't raise interest rates higher for longer because the interest on the debt will be too high to service. You'll blow up the system.

You can't lower prices for long or the entire debt-based system will collapse. You'll get a wave of defaults which will cascade through the system from top to bottom.

So, if you can't really raise interest rates further for longer and you can't lower prices, you can only increase the length of financing terms to make payments affordable again. Of course, this will further drive up prices, but that's what we're faced with.

For years I predicted the resurgence of unions because they've squeezed our standard of living down to nothing and drove the wealth gap way too far. Now you're seeing it, as auto workers are unionizing in the South, and companies like Starbucks, Amazon, and Walmart face increasing pressure from unions.

Now I'm predicting 10-year car loans and 40-year mortgages will become commonplace over the next few years.

Buckle up! It's gonna be brutal.

I brought up how FedEx freight's shipments per day dropped from 120k to 90k. He told me he didn't expect it to get back to where it was. He said the focus on customers was qualtity over quantity. They raised shipping prices and were fine letting go of anybody that didn't want to pay the increase.

Every business owner in every industry weighs pricing decisions continually based on demand, profitability, and various other factors.

I've spoken with trucking executives who readily admit they haul freight at a loss sometimes. It can be maintaining fleet size, keeping top drivers rolling, moving drivers out of poor-paying areas into better areas, finding a backhaul for a dedicated account, and other factors.

This must be one of the most difficult times to make business projections there ever was:

1. The government blatantly lies about everything. You can't get any reliable data from them at all.

2. They shut down the planet and then printed trillions of dollars, thus executing the largest wealth transfer to the upper class in human history

3. They drove inflation through the roof, the worst in 50 years

4. The combination of interest rates and inflation made home ownership impossible for most people in the US

5. AI gets released in the middle of all this, creating a massive waves of layoffs throughout many industries, including tech and finance. You'll see millions more people lose their jobs over the next year or two because of AI alone.

6. On top of everything else, it's an election year, which means bad actors will once again bring chaos to our country like in 2020. Back then it was Antifa, now it's Palestine. When it comes time to implement CBDC's to take final control of the population, they'll create yet another "summer on fire" with a new excuse.

It's impossible to know where we're heading at this point.

New article came out today:

GM Shifts Into Higher Gear As It Beats Quarterly Results, Raises 2024 Guidance

Here is a quote from the article:

General Motors shares are higher in premarket trading after raising its 2024 guidance and beating Wall Street analysts' top- and bottom-line expectations for the first quarter. The automaker cited stable pricing and increasing demand for its petrol-powered vehicles.

GM boosted its adjusted pretax profit forecast to $12.5 billion to $14.5 billion, or $9 to $10 a share, up from its previous range of $12 billion to $14 billion, or $8.50 and $9.50 a share, for the year on a more robust car market in North America offsetting losses in other regions.

The automaker increased its 2024 forecast for adjusted automotive free cash flow to $8.5 billion and $10.5 billion, up from the previous estimate of $8 billion to $10 billion.

Last year the UAW renegotiated contracts and scored a big win for auto workers. I've been celebrating these wins here in this thread. After the UAW negotiations, people said, "Just watch and see how many of those workers lose their job."

Well, it looks like everything is full steam ahead at Chevrolet. The company is making a ton of money, and even raised guidance for 2024 beyond what they previously expected and above Wall Street expectations.

I'm pointing this out because my take has always been that workers aren't getting their fair share anymore. People repeatedly warn me that these raises are going to lead to job losses, moving factories overseas, and more pain for the little man.

This demonstrates that even after giving a massive raise to its workers, the auto makers are rolling along just fine and the workers are able to pay their bills a little easier at the same time.

Here are some details about the contract negotiations from last year for the UAW:

2023 Negotiations: After six weeks of strikes, the UAW reached agreements with each automaker in November 2023. These contracts were seen as a major win for the union and a turning point in labor relations.

Key Wins for Workers:

Wage Increases: Workers received a significant increase in hourly pay, with estimates suggesting a total increase of 25% over the four-and-a-half-year contract term. This is a substantial jump compared to the previous contracts.

Cost-of-Living Adjustments (COLA): The contracts included a reinstatement of COLA provisions, which had been suspended in previous agreements. This helps wages keep pace with inflation.

Improved Benefits: The contracts offered improved healthcare benefits and other benefits for workers.

Two-Tier System Elimination: While not eliminated entirely, the agreements aimed to phase out the two-tier wage system in some plants, leading to more equitable pay structures.

Job Security: The contracts provided some assurances for job security, including the reopening of a previously closed plant by Stellantis.

Overall Impact: These contracts were viewed as a significant victory for the UAW, reversing years of concessions and demonstrating renewed bargaining power for autoworkers. The substantial wage increases addressed concerns about rising living costs and income inequality.

Hey Davy,

Amen to all that! I agree with every word.

As a union steelworker, my father earned wages based on piecework. He loved that job.

What I have always loved about mileage pay or piecework is that the goals of the workers and the company are in alignment. It's easier to start with the hourly example first.

With hourly pay, workers feel motivated to do as little work as possible. It's to the worker's advantage to do little or nothing for their pay because they're not being paid for their work but for their time. So why do any work? Just put in the time if you can.

The company, on the other hand, wants the opposite. They would like to squeeze as much work as possible out of the worker each hour to get the best return on their investment.

So, with hourly pay, the workers and management have opposing incentives.

With mileage pay or piece work, the company and the workers make or lose money together. The more work the workers do, the more money they make, and the more money the company makes. So, everyone's interests are aligned, and they work together toward the same goal: maximum productivity.

We've often discussed the relationship between driving a truck and owning a business. In many respects, the job duties of a truck driver align closely with those of a business owner. A driver must account for a wide variety of variables at all times, including traffic, weather, logbook hours, parking, personal responsibilities outside of work, relationships, and more.

It's rare for an employee to have so much responsibility and so much control over their working domain. It's an opportunity to outperform your peers, but it can be overwhelming. Poor decisions will cost the driver and the company money.

We live in a competitive world, and trucking is one of the most competitive industries in America. It's an outstanding career for ambitious people. Motivating drivers to become more efficient with mileage pay has contributed to tremendous gains in efficiency, keeping freight rates low through the years and helping our economy stay strong.

I wrote an article about this subject:

Choosing A Truck Driving Job Part V: Comparing Large Trucking Companies To Small Ones

Trucking is a commodity service, which means the lowest-cost provider wins. In that scenario, the scale of your business is critically important because it can give you an edge in many ways.

For one, a larger company has more resources available to develop greater efficiencies. A large corporation has teams using AI and advanced mathematical models to determine the most efficient freight lanes to run, the proper fleet size, hedge fuel prices, haul the most profitable products and develop efficient pricing.

They also have the resources to purchase things like trucks, fuel, and tires in bulk, which gives them a discount compared to their smaller competitors.

They also have the resources available to provide services to customers that smaller companies can not compete with, like allowing the use of their trailers as storage at a customer's facility, parking numerous empty trailers at a customer for on-demand loading, and scaling up operations or picking up freight with little notice.

So, large carriers have a long list of advantages over smaller carriers. These advantages pay dividends to the driver, who often gets better pay, more consistent miles, and more opportunities with a large customer base and many different types of freight to haul to different regions of the country.

The old myth is that a small carrier will treat you like family, where at a large carrier you're nothing but a number. That's garbage, and was in no way my experience over the years. I knew my support team at the large carriers I worked for just as well as I did the small carriers. In fact, it's the large carriers that give out awards, have big picnics and outings for their drivers, and provide better services at the terminals like a driver's lounge, game room, showers, sleeping quarters, and more.

The next time someone tells you that small companies are the better place to work, really pin them down for reasons why. Ask for specific examples of why the smaller carriers are better. I've worked for companies from 11 trucks up to 6,000 trucks and everything in between. My best experiences were at the large carriers, which is why I spent the final six years of my OTR career at a large carrier, US Xpress.

My point in this is that the issue is not caused by huge exec pay

Now, talk about corporate cash reserves and stock buybacks. How do you feel about those?

This article was released last night by Zerohedge but was written by Greg Fuller, CEO of FreightWaves:

The Great Freight Recession Has Now Lasted Longer Than The COVID Bull Market

What happened to the trucking industry is pretty simple to understand in hindsight. The trucking market over-expanded dramatically from mid-2020 until mid-2022 due to an artificial surge of demand created by:

1. The limited supply of drivers during and after COVID

2. Most of the US sitting home in lockdowns ordering online instead of shopping in-person

3. A massive surge in discretionary spending from the 'helicopter money' the US govt dropped on the people during lockdowns

So everyone was at home with pockets full of money and nothing to do but order stuff online. Our infrastructure wasn't designed to accommodate that sudden surge, so freight prices skyrocketed. That created a massive expansion of capacity in our industry.

When that artificial demand dried up, so did the freight market. But hopes remained high that the good times would continue, and the memories of how difficult it was to expand their fleets for the surge in demand remained fresh. Not to mention, the govt has lied consistently about the strength of our economy, making it exceedingly difficult to predict future demand.

Companies didn't want to reduce fleet size, so they held on as long as possible. That's why this has been such a long, slow grind for the industry.

Here is more from the article:

During the two years of the freight market’s COVID bull run, fleets built up substantial operating surpluses and were able to build strong balance sheets. This has enabled them to hang on for a long time.

For much of the Great Freight Recession, trucking fleets have been running many of their miles at losses. This has forced them to tap into the financial reserves they built up during the COVID bull run.

The Great Freight Recession has gone on longer than the COVID bull run, meaning that since the first days of the COVID lockdowns, truckers have operated primarily in recessionary territory. For those who remain in the market, their reserves are likely exhausted, as is their stamina.

However, for those who can continue, the tough times may be ending. The data suggests that a recovery in the balance of supply and demand will come as soon as fall 2024, but almost certainly by spring 2025.

Finally, here is a chart showing the number of trucking companies in the US, with green being expansion and red being contraction:

What do you guys think? Is our economy about to take off, or are we about to fall off a cliff?

This has always been a problem when teaching people a new trade. People who are new to something often have their own thoughts on how things should be done, how they should be treated, and what to expect along the way. The truth is, they're just making it all up because they have no experience yet. But in their minds, they know what they expect.

Unfortunately, when things don't meet their fictional expectations, new drivers often assume the people they're dealing with either don't know what they're doing or they're intentionally trying to hurt the student.

The student gets frustrated and nervous, believing they chose the wrong path. They become confrontational, stop focusing on learning, and begin focusing on how "wrong" the training process is or how "incompetent" the trainers are.

If someone can't sit them down and help them understand things in a better light, the student is likely doomed. Their poor attitude will lead to poor performance, and before long, they're out of the industry altogether.

Rule #1 - only accept advice from people who have achieved both happiness and success in their trade. How will you learn what it takes to be happy and successful from someone who hasn't figured that out?

Kearsey is a great example. She loves the company she works for, makes great money, and has had many years of success, including some awards along the way. Now that's someone you can learn from! All of our moderators are examples of the type of people you can learn from.

However, I understand why people seek the negative side as well. For instance, when I go to buy something, I always check the one-star reviews just in case I discover a legitimate reason not to buy it. I know the five-star people love it, so I don't even need to check in with them. I want to hear why people did not like the item.

But just as Kearsey points out, sometimes disgruntled people cause their own problems and don't realize it. They incorrectly blame the people or their circumstances for their troubles. Maybe they were using the product wrong. Perhaps their expectations were off because of a paid review that exaggerated the quality of the product.

So I can understand a new driver wanting a list of reasons they may not want to become a truck driver, but they have to be careful where they get the information from. We've always been completely transparent about the pros and cons of trucking. Someone who is brand new to trucking will have almost no idea how any of this works for quite some time, but they may believe they have it figured out and won't hesitate to share.

Work for me has been steady but not spectacular

All that said, this is my first week back out and I'm not impressed. I thought I could easily rack 12k+ miles per month with this company as I have before. That is no longer the case.

One reason to keep hope alive is that survival in the trucking industry requires efficient operations. If you're not getting solid miles, it won't last. It's can't. Trucking companies must utilize their fleet efficiently enough to pay their bills. They can't afford to let their trucks sit for long.

So, if you're struggling to pay your bills because you're not getting enough miles, your company is also struggling to pay their bills, at least on your truck. If you ask around at your company and find many drivers complaining about it being slow, your company is hurting as well, and they're working on changes.

Many companies are reluctant to reduce their fleet size because ramping things up again is a slow, arduous process. You can quickly eliminate as many trucks and drivers as you like, but acquiring more trucks and drivers can be time-consuming and expensive. You may also miss out on some great opportunities if you're not ready when they present themselves.

We have been sold out to the point where we are well on our way to the 3rd world and its extremely depressing. I hope I'm wrong of course, but I digress.

You're not wrong about us being sold out, and you're not wrong about the direction we're heading. Hopefully, we turn this ship around soon!

In the meantime, and this goes to everyone out there, be proactive about maintaining your mental health. At times, I've allowed myself to get too bogged down in the headlines, which has impacted my happiness and productivity. I've had to step away a bit and spend more time focusing on meditation, positive news, and exercise.

If you've paid attention in recent years, you know that there's been a massive campaign going on to demoralize us. If you weren't aware of that, now you are.

Don't let them draw you in. Understand their tactics and motives and proactively counter them so you remain strong, confident, and in full control of your life. Keep an eye on your family and friends. Check-in with them. Make sure they're ok.

We are living through some of the most trying times of our lives, and It's nowhere near over. Prepare for a long battle and do not lose faith.