Self Driving Trucks

Has anyone noticed how the internet is all abuzz about Aurora putting self driving trucks on the road? The media releases make it sound like the world changed overnight and we are going to be living like the Jetsons in about six or seven months.

Don't be fooled. Why isn't Aurora's stock going through the roof? Intelligent people, who know how to analyze something, still see a lot of headwinds hindering this amazing technology.

We are still a long way from this tech being threatening in any way.

We are still a long way from this tech being threatening in any way.

That's for sure! I always bring up an article I wrote back in 2017:

Self Driving Trucks Are Not Coming Anytime Soon

It's been eight years since I wrote that article, and I wrote it at the time because people were talking as if we were just about there. I knew we weren't even close.

Three years after writing that article, I went to a business convention in Florida put on by a very famous person. This was in January 2020. The man stood in front of a huge audience and exclaimed, with fantastic confidence, "With self-driving trucks, there will be no truck drivers in five years!"

I know he didn't mean it literally when he said there would be no truck drivers, but it's been 5 1/2 years since he said that, and not one single driver was replaced by self-driving vehicles, and in fact, there are more truck drivers on the road today than there were five years ago.

However, another thing I've warned about for years was the possibility of bringing in immigrants to take our jobs, and that has happened in a big way over the past few years. Hopefully, that trend will reverse, but it never did for other industries like farming, construction, and landscaping. Only time will tell.

Self-driving trucks will not hurt truck driver pay or recruitment for many years, if ever at the pace they're going. However, not the same can not be said for immigrants. It has had an effect, and will for the foreseeable future.

They have been slowly making some progress on the tech itself, however they operate under temp exceptions. Once they get the tech perfected then the gov’t will have to create rules for them long term. We all know how fast washington moves.

CEO’s are kinda like politicans. They say all kinds of things with no tanigable facts in support to get money. They hype it all up for a payday. People buy into the rehortic all the time.

I don't stress about it. I've only been in this racket for 3ish years now, and while I had some initial trouble finding my footing, I'm happily working Northwest Regional with Leonard's Express pulling reefer to and from dedicated accounts. Sure, there are people working tirelessly to remove drivers from the equation and put millions out of a job, but the harsh reality is that, even McDonalds still needs humans behind the counter in addition to the self service ordering terminals. I feel like if burger flippers haven't been replaced yet, we still have a long way. Also, the huge overhaul that would be necessary from a logistical, operational, and legislative aspect from various sectors would be so extensive and slow to put this in place for mass deployment that it doesn't even seem tangible in the even distant future.

However, if my boss rolled up to me and said the gig is up, the gig is up. I enjoy trucking but I'm also not afraid to reinvent myself again if the industry suddenly collapses. All that being said, the illegals on work visas and various non-english speaking immigrants that treat this line of work like a ****ing well [literally and figuratively] and continue to degrade the reputation of otherwise prideful hardworking drivers [because we all get lumped in with the lowest common denominator unfortunately], are going to cause the industry to implode long before AI trucks do. I feel horrible for the owner/ops or small family carriers that can't manage with the fly-by-night rates that these rogue drivers driving rates into the toilet.

but the harsh reality is that, even McDonalds still needs humans behind the counter in addition to the self service ordering terminals. I feel like if burger flippers haven't been replaced yet, we still have a long way.

I agree wholeheartedly.

For instance, they want self-driving vehicles, right? How about self-driving lawnmowers or garbage cans first? Prove you can build garbage cans that can drive themselves to the curb and return when empty. Then, prove you can consistently mow any lawn safely and efficiently, while the kids and pets are running around, and then we'll begin the conversation about cars and trucks.

I use AI daily. I build AI-driven apps. I can tell you from quite a bit of experience that AI will give you graduate-level science in one paragraph, but then screw up 3rd-grade level facts in the next. It is WILDLY unpredictable, even in many of the simplest tasks. You must not take your eyes off it, even for a moment.

I can't tell you how often I'm yelling at the screen, "How on EARTH could you screw that up? How could you possibly get that wrong????"

For instance, a few months ago I presented a partial list of U.S. state abbreviations and asked Grok (x.com), Gemini (Google), and ChatGPT (OpenAI) to complete the list. I gave each of them three tries, and none got it right. They would leave out states every time.

Yet ask them to explain quantum computing and they'll give you a 30-minute PhD dissertation.

Wildly unpredictable. That's not so good for decision-making when piloting an 80,000-pound truck.

I'll go back to my previous statement when this conversation came up a while back.

I'm going to quickly pursue my law degree so that when the system fails and it kills an unsuspecting motorist, I'll represent the family. I'll sue the tech company, the logistics company utilizing the truck, the truck manufacturer for allowing dangerous utilization of their vehicle, the state for allowing it on their roads and file against the federal government for causing a fatal accident with a product that didn't have human redundancies in place for when it failed.

I figure it'll take a while to get the entire settlement but I'll retire and bring you all with me.

You know whats funny? I heard someone on Road Dog radio say something similar the other day. We should all become lawyers against the tech companies. Start sending those nuclear verdicts there way for a change eh? Replace all those big rig accident billboards with AI accident billboards. Not so fun when the rabbit has the ****in' gun huh? 🤣

I'll go back to my previous statement when this conversation came up a while back.

I'm going to quickly pursue my law degree so that when the system fails and it kills an unsuspecting motorist, I'll represent the family. I'll sue the tech company, the logistics company utilizing the truck, the truck manufacturer for allowing dangerous utilization of their vehicle, the state for allowing it on their roads and file against the federal government for causing a fatal accident with a product that didn't have human redundancies in place for when it failed.

I figure it'll take a while to get the entire settlement but I'll retire and bring you all with me.

I recently saw an interview with one of Aurora's executive level employees. He kept talking about how fulfilling this accomplishment is. He's speaking as if they've done their job, and now it's up to the rest of us to clap and cheer, and help them get this thing launched.

All the while I'm watching his facial expressions throughout the interview. He looks like he's scared to death. I don't know if he was just nervous about what they might ask, or if he knows this thing is not anywhere near where it needs to be, but they have got to show something in order to secure more funding.

It's strange, but some of their top people are jumping ship now. I'm not afraid of new tech, but rushed changes to the trucking industry are not smart moves.

How about self-driving lawnmowers

Then, prove you can consistently mow any lawn safely and efficiently, while the kids and pets are running around

Funny you mentioned this, I literally saw one today mowing the large empty field at the mall. It got my attention because it has a bunch of flashing lights on it, and I was like "oh there is nobody riding that one".

I'm not really going to worry about self-driving trucks until the lane departure and collision alerts on my truck can tell what is and what isn't a concern.

I'm not really going to worry about self-driving trucks until the lane departure and collision alerts on my truck can tell what is and what isn't a concern.

It's almost impossible to believe that here we are in 2025, and trucks still have the same unreliable, primitive object detection systems that regularly give false alarms. You guys know I started driving in '93, and from the start, that garbage beeped in my ears all day long.

Guardrails, bridges, and everything else set that thing off. I can't remember a single time in my career when a safety device alerted me to something I was unaware of.

Clearly, tech companies' marketing and money-raising departments rely on people not noticing that nothing has changed in 30 years, even though, according to them, we're always "on the cusp of the final breakthrough. "

Funny you mentioned this, I literally saw one today mowing the large empty field at the mall. It got my attention because it has a bunch of flashing lights on it, and I was like "oh there is nobody riding that one".

They can use GPS to guide farm tractors and mowers in fields, but object detection and terrain detection are a problem. If you're in a big, open field like a cornfield or a football field, it's no problem. But if they put that tractor in a suburban yard, you'll have a lot of repair work to do. It can't do that kind of thing.

Same with these "self-driving trucks" that can only go from one Interstate exit to another. It's funny how they never mention self-driving trucks navigating major cities. It seems to me we could have developed a strong freight train network if we wanted to move a ton of goods in a straight line long distances without using many people. Developing self-driving trucks seems like an awful long and expensive way to accomplish that.

I have a couple of drones. They have object detection. It works great, until it flies straight into a tree for no apparent reason (ask me how I know)