Possible Self Driving/ Autonomous Trucks Opinions And Time Frame?

Topic 22073 | Page 2

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Rollr 4.'s Comment
member avatar

I beg to differ. The fear, uncertainty and doubt created by all the hype IS having an impact - young people are ruling out driving careers as a viable option because they perceive it as a dead-end. " Oh noes! Why invest three weeks of my life to get a CDL when the trucks are just going to drive themselves?" This combined with retiring baby boomers is shrinking the pool of available drivers at a time when demand for drivers is at an all-time high. Look for massive signing bonuses, higher cpm rates and improved benefits to continue for the foreseeable future.

That’s something I wondered about too, to me if there’s a driver shortage you want to fix saying you plan on replacing drivers with automation isn’t going to help the problem it’s just going to scare people away from that industry and make a larger problem until you can actually get the automation in working order. But then again while I’m worried about the possibility of it I’m still wanting to get my cdl and make a career in trucking happen, so I’m sure regardless of what the outcome is there’s others who feel the same way and will still strive for a career in trucking.

CDL:

Commercial Driver's License (CDL)

A CDL is required to drive any of the following vehicles:

  • Any combination of vehicles with a gross combined weight rating (GCWR) of 26,001 or more pounds, providing the gross vehicle weight rating (GVWR) of the vehicle being towed is in excess of 10,000 pounds.
  • Any single vehicle with a GVWR of 26,001 or more pounds, or any such vehicle towing another not in excess of 10,000 pounds.
  • Any vehicle, regardless of size, designed to transport 16 or more persons, including the driver.
  • Any vehicle required by federal regulations to be placarded while transporting hazardous materials.

CPM:

Cents Per Mile

Drivers are often paid by the mile and it's given in cents per mile, or cpm.

Rollr 4.'s Comment
member avatar

There will always be a need for a driver/operater.

The responses here are helping to be the voice of reason for me and that I probably have nothing to worry about, but still I hope you’re right that there will always be a need for a driver.

Brett Aquila's Comment
member avatar
if there’s a driver shortage you want to fix saying you plan on replacing drivers with automation isn’t going to help the problem it’s just going to scare people away

It's not the trucking industry that's putting out all this hype about self-driving trucks, it's tech companies and researchers and science magazines and people of that nature.

∆_Danielsahn_∆'s Comment
member avatar

double-quotes-start.png

There will always be a need for a driver/operater.

double-quotes-end.png

The responses here are helping to be the voice of reason for me and that I probably have nothing to worry about, but still I hope you’re right that there will always be a need for a driver.

I would like to see an autonomous truck navigate, and back congested city streets, docking areas, etc. And bump some of the docks that I have seen and I am barely a rookie. There are certain aspects of the whole process of the trip that require human interaction, that the "computer" is simply incapable of doing.

Brett Aquila's Comment
member avatar
There are certain aspects of the whole process of the trip that require human interaction, that the "computer" is simply incapable of doing.

There are a ton of scenarios that computers aren't going to be able to handle. For instance, say there's something in the road ahead. What is it? Can a computer identify it accurately and then decide the most prudent course of action?

Is it a large piece of plastic floating across the highway in the wind or is it a person?

Is it a gator (a tire carcass) in the road or just a plastic bag?

If there is a deer on the shoulder walking toward your lane of the highway, what should you do? Should you hit your horn to scare it off? Should you get in the hammer lane hoping it doesn't run in front of you? Should you run it over, sad as that is, because the roads are too slick and crowded to take evasive action?

This is just one super simple example of how difficult it can be to determine what is in the road and what action should be taken. There are thousands of possible scenarios to consider and almost every possibility would have to be programmed in manually. At some point the most prudent action would be to run over an animal. Who is going to program a computer to purposely kill a living creature? What if it misidentifies that deer and it's actually a person it chooses to run over instead of going off the highway into a field?

OOS:

When a violation by either a driver or company is confirmed, an out-of-service order removes either the driver or the vehicle from the roadway until the violation is corrected.

Rollr 4.'s Comment
member avatar

double-quotes-start.png

if there’s a driver shortage you want to fix saying you plan on replacing drivers with automation isn’t going to help the problem it’s just going to scare people away

double-quotes-end.png

It's not the trucking industry that's putting out all this hype about self-driving trucks, it's tech companies and researchers and science magazines and people of that nature.

I guess you’re right there, I keep automatically jumping to thinking the trucking industry is for it but I don’t think I’ve actually seen anything that says that’s the case.

Rollr 4.'s Comment
member avatar

I would like to see an autonomous truck navigate, and back congested city streets, docking areas, etc. And bump some of the docks that I have seen and I am barely a rookie. There are certain aspects of the whole process of the trip that require human interaction, that the "computer" is simply incapable of doing.

double-quotes-start.png

There are certain aspects of the whole process of the trip that require human interaction, that the "computer" is simply incapable of doing.

double-quotes-end.png

There are a ton of scenarios that computers aren't going to be able to handle. For instance, say there's something in the road ahead. What is it? Can a computer identify it accurately and then decide the most prudent course of action?

Is it a large piece of plastic floating across the highway in the wind or is it a person?

Is it a gator (a tire carcass) in the road or just a plastic bag?

If there is a deer on the shoulder walking toward your lane of the highway, what should you do? Should you hit your horn to scare it off? Should you get in the hammer lane hoping it doesn't run in front of you? Should you run it over, sad as that is, because the roads are too slick and crowded to take evasive action?

This is just one super simple example of how difficult it can be to determine what is in the road and what action should be taken. There are thousands of possible scenarios to consider and almost every possibility would have to be programmed in manually. At some point the most prudent action would be to run over an animal. Who is going to program a computer to purposely kill a living creature? What if it misidentifies that deer and it's actually a person it chooses to run over instead of going off the highway into a field?

Those are all really good points. I’ve seen those types of scenarios brought up the most when I see discussions and I think they might be some of the more convincing aspects of why it can’t realistically happen.

HOS:

Hours Of Service

HOS refers to the logbook hours of service regulations.

OOS:

When a violation by either a driver or company is confirmed, an out-of-service order removes either the driver or the vehicle from the roadway until the violation is corrected.

Slowpoke's Comment
member avatar

The good news for all those drivers worried about being replaced by a robot is they won't be able to replace the driver with a robot until they replace the shippers and receivers and all other drivers with robots. In my 30 plus years in this industry I have yet to meet the shipper or receiver who came out to meet me in the driveway or staging yard to see why I was there. Quite the opposite actually, pick ups and deliveries often times took some investigation to; 1) determine which of the unmarked doors on the building I needed to go into to find one that would open and possibly yield the result of finding a live individual who could tell me the business I was looking for had moved across town (yeah I really want to see the first video of a robot encountering that, I am fairly confident it will be comedic gold), or 2) find a person who is intentionally playing hide and seek with me, because they want to leave the job of loading or unloading me for the next shift or after lunch, or 3) find the person who parked their car right in the middle of where I need to be backing into to get them to move it out of harms way,

I really could go on forever , but I assure anyone who is reading this, your job is safe until they first solve the above 3 (and I am sure at least 1000 more) issues that would currently befuddle the most well programmed computer/robot in the world. However, probably more pertinent than any of the above all I really need to do is recognize that at least once a month either my work computer or home computer will take a hissy fit and decide it really does not want to open the program I have selected, or better yet, decides it needs to reboot ........ Just Because......... Yep, there is the automated vehicle, car or truck, I want to be sharing the road with, you know the one travelling at 65 MPH while its processor is having trouble processing the information from the program into a proper command to whatever mechanism it is sending a command to, or its programming is telling it to shut down and restart..........., again while it is doing, yeah, 65 MPH on the highway, YIKES!!!!

Slowpoke

Shipper:

The customer who is shipping the freight. This is where the driver will pick up a load and then deliver it to the receiver or consignee.

HOS:

Hours Of Service

HOS refers to the logbook hours of service regulations.
Bill F.'s Comment
member avatar

I’m just gonna throw this out there since you’re young enough to see some of this happen in your lifetime. What about;

Drones? Think about it. Vertical lift of an entire 53’ container, straight shot to delivery and no roads to deal with. Altitude lanes could be established so as not to interfere with other air traffic. Currently, pilots sit in boxes in The US and control military drones on the other side of the globe. Why not freight drones? And why not you?

Expensive? Right now yes. Impossible? Hmm.

Some will say it can’t happen, but I grew up watching The Jetsons and we’ve got hand-held phones now and food that practically prepares itself.

Dive in, embrace technological advances and maybe you will be a future freight pilot. 😊

The strongest heavy lift helicopter we have now can lift a little over 20K pounds. It creates a hurricane on the ground around it when loaded. The logistics behind drones and heavy loads will not be overcome anytime soon.

CH-47 Wiki

Mack T.'s Comment
member avatar

double-quotes-start.png

most of the articles I saw looked like they were written about a year ago if not a little more than a year so I was just wondering if the opinions on self driving trucks had changed since then with all the news about it lately

double-quotes-end.png

Heck no. Nothing has changed. All of the "news" about self-driving vehicles is little more than tech companies and universities trying to build hype to raise money for their startups or their research. They keep promising, "We're on the edge of a major breakthrough" to create a sense of urgency. They want investors with deep pockets to think that if they get in on it now and make a big investment they might just be part of the team that takes over the world with self driving vehicles. It's an investor's equivalent of striking oil or hitting the jackpot in Vegas.

Self-driving trucks are not going to have any impact on trucking for a very long time. Like I've said, trains and airplanes are going to be automated before big rigs will and that hasn't happened yet even though the technology has been there for decades.

Most of the companies involved with self driving have billions behind them with no need for investors. However investors are sinking multi billions into self driving. Its coming faster than you think. This guy is 21, he has, maybe 10 yrs before he starts getting squeezed out.

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